July 15, 2026
Investment Outlook
and Portfolio Strategy
Q3 2026
and Portfolio Strategy
Q3 2026
Forecasts for the Next 12-18 Months
| Scenarios | June 30, 2026 | Sustained Inflation | Stagflation | Recession | Productivity Boom | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability | 45% | 30% | 15% | 10% | |||||
| GDP Growth | |||||||||
| Global | 3.00% | 3.00% | 2.50% | 2.00% | 3.50% | ||||
| U.S. | 2.10% | 2.00% | 1.50% | -1.00% | 3.00% | ||||
| Canada | 1.50% | 1.50% | 1.00% | -1.50% | 2.50% | ||||
| Inflation (Headline Y/Y) | |||||||||
| U.S | 4.20% | 3.00% | 4.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | ||||
| Canada | 3.20% | 2.25% | 3.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | ||||
| Short-Term Rates | |||||||||
| Federal Reserve | 3.75% | 3.75% | 4.75% | 2.50% | 3.00% | ||||
| Bank of Canada | 2.25% | 2.25% | 2.50% | 2.00% | 2.25% | ||||
| 10-Year Rates | |||||||||
| U.S. Government | 4.47% | 4.50% | 5.25% | 3.00% | 3.75% | ||||
| Canada Government | 3.38% | 3.50% | 4.00% | 2.75% | 3.00% | ||||
| Profit Estimates (12 Months Forward) | |||||||||
| U.S. | 367 | 350 | 300 | 275 | 380 | ||||
| Canada | 2144 | 2000 | 1900 | 1600 | 2100 | ||||
| EAFE | 187 | 180 | 170 | 150 | 190 | ||||
| EM | 136 | 135 | 125 | 100 | 140 | ||||
| P/E (12 Months Forward) | |||||||||
| U.S. | 20.5X | 22.0X | 20.0X | 18.5X | 23.0X | ||||
| Canada | 16.3X | 17.0X | 16.0X | 14.0X | 17.5X | ||||
| EAFE | 16.7X | 18.0X | 15.0X | 14.0X | 19.0X | ||||
| EM | 12.7X | 14.0X | 12.0X | 11.0X | 15.0X | ||||
| Currencies | |||||||||
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | 1.17 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1.20 | ||||
| CAD/USD | 0.70 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.75 | ||||
| Commodities | |||||||||
| Oil (WTI, USD/barrel) | 69.50 | 70.00 | 80.00 | 90.00 | 75.00 | ||||
| Gold (USD/oz) | 4,038.50 | 4,500.00 | 4,000.00 | 4,800.00 | 4,600.00 | ||||
Source: Fiera Capital, as of December 31, 2025.
Discussions regarding potential future events and their impact on the markets are based solely on historical information and Fiera Capital’s estimates and/or opinions, and are provided for illustrative purposes only. General Market projections are hypothetical estimates of long-term returns of economic asset classes based on statistical models and do not represent the returns of an actual investment. Actual results could vary substantially. Models have limitations and may not be relied upon to make predictions of future performance of any account. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.